Week 16 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-16 05:53

65%
Win Probability
+18.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
5
Bust Risk
Hunter Henry (60%), Jameson Williams (46%), Omarion Hampton (53%), Bucky Irving (51%), Rams D/ST (59%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Higher projection (20.0 vs 18.0)
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (17.0 vs 14.0)
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (14.0 vs 6.0)
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Jameson Williams Higher projection (21.0 vs 17.0)
WR2: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (17.0 vs 14.0)
TE: Start Hunter Henry over Juwan Johnson Higher projection (9.0 vs 8.0)
D/ST: Start Rams D/ST over Bears D/ST Higher projection (5.0 vs 5.0)
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Rashee Rice Higher projection (14.0 vs 13.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett ATL18.820.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving CAR15.217.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton DAL13.414.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba LAR20.921.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams PIT15.517.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Hunter Henry BAL10.49.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers LAR8.311.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Rams D/ST SEA5.15.0BUSTMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan TB13.114.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chargers D/ST (D/ST) 52% boom / 17% bust
DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 45% boom / 19% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 18% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 31% boom / 23% bust
Protected (Playoffs)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marcus Mariota (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Juwan Johnson (Elite ceiling (21 pts)), Bears D/ST (Elite ceiling (23 pts))

Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semi-finals present several key decisions. Jacoby Brissett emerges as our top QB play in a favorable dome matchup against Atlanta, which has allowed top-6 fantasy QB scores in 2 of their last 3 games. The Cardinals QB has been remarkably consistent across 9 starts this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads our WR corps with elite target share against the Rams on Thursday Night Football, while Bucky Irving gets a smash RB matchup against Carolina defense that allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs. The Mahomes ACL tear significantly impacts Rashee Rice outlook—with Gardner Minshew starting in rainy Nashville, Rice slides to the bench in favor of Tetairoa McMillan in the FLEX.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 16)

0.0 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Marcus Mariota QB QB 0.0 12.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 17.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.4 14.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 21.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.8 13.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.1 8.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 15.5 17.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 11.0
Bears D/ST D/ST D/ST 2.9 5.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 7.4 5.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.4 9.0
Jacoby Brissett (bench) QB BE 18.8 20.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.4 18.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.1 5.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.1 14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 8.7 6.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR IR 14.2 ---
0.0 Actual
128.0 LLM Total
103.0 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Baker Mayfield QB QB 16.6 18.0
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB 23.7 22.0
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.4 12.0
Jordan Addison WR WR 10.5 10.0
Michael Wilson WR WR 13.4 8.0
Trey McBride TE TE 16.8 14.0
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 14.9 12.0
Harrison Butker K K 8.0 7.0
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.7 7.0
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 7.6 ---
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE 10.5 ---
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 7.2 ---
Rome Odunze (bench) WR BE 13.1 ---
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE 9.6 ---
Ryan Flournoy (bench) WR BE 6.9 ---
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE 13.0 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
110.0 Opp LLM Total
125.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +18.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week). Agreement on MODERATE. Cold weather at Soldier Field (32°F, 15mph wind) slightly depresses ceiling but 46.5 game total is favorable. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical upside). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). Now the starter (Jayden Daniels out). PHI has strong defense but Mariota has rushing floor. Cold weather, risky. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0--2.1-2.1
13BYE14.8-23.3+8.4
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11BYE18.2-15.4-2.8
10BYE16.3-18.7+2.4
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8BYE16.9-11.3-5.6
7BYE0.0-3.9+3.9
6BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4ATL0.0-16.2+16.2
3BYE17.0-20.3+3.2
2BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
1BYE0.2-0.0-0.2
  • Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
  • Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
  • Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 72% BOOM (historical pattern), 26% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 39% bust (this week). MC shows extremely boom-heavy distribution. Reddit buzz: "matchup-proof 20-point QB" across 9 starts. ATL allows top-6 fantasy QB in 2 of 3 weeks. Dome game, 46.5 total. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 12-30 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 72%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 64% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust-biased but CAR allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to RBs - strong smash matchup. Trusting matchup over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 64% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust-biased but DAL allows 33rd-ranked pts to RBs (worst in NFL). High 49.5 total dome game. Trust matchup over model. Mode: MODERATE (mid-high). Projection: 14.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.4 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 22% bust (this week). JSN has elite target share in SEA offense. LAR secondary beatable. Good conditions Thursday night. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 21.0 pts (within 13-25 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). Rookie WR1 for CAR in good weather vs TB. Balanced distribution. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM, 31% BUST (historical high variance). XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes OUT (ACL), Minshew starting. Plus 80% rain and 18mph wind at Nashville. Volume floor remains but ceiling capped significantly. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.5 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 30% BUST (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 46% bust (this week). SHOOTOUT SCRIPT: DET vs PIT has 49.5 total, DET -6.5 favorites. DET offense will be aggressive. 21% target share makes JW a smash play in high-scoring environment. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB very bust-heavy. Dome game but only 40.5 total. Limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 10.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 46% MODERATE, 42% BUST (historical). XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust but 48.5 total primetime game. NE needs passing options. Mode: MODERATE (low-mid). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 7-16 range).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week). Agreement on MODERATE. Cold weather at Soldier Field (32°F, 15mph wind) slightly depresses ceiling but 46.5 game total is favorable. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33%

Notes: MC: 43% BOOM, 31% BUST (historical high variance). XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes OUT (ACL), Minshew starting. Plus 80% rain and 18mph wind at Nashville. Volume floor remains but ceiling capped significantly. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Juwan Johnson (TE) - NO vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 41% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB very bust-heavy. Dome game but only 40.5 total. Limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.4 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Bears D/ST (D/ST) - CHI vs GB

Projections: ESPN 2.9 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 32%

Notes: MC: 34% BUST, 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 24% boom, 32% bust (this week). GB offense competent with Jordan Love. High 46.5 game total suggests points scored. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -3-9 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB2.5-2.0-0.5
13PHI3.5-5.0+1.5
12PIT4.7-6.0+1.3
11MIN5.7-7.0+1.3
10NYG4.4-3.0-1.4
9CIN5.1-1.0-4.1
8BAL6.1-0.0-6.1
7NO5.0-15.0+10.0
6WSH3.5-9.0+5.5
4LV5.2-9.0+3.8
3DAL3.5-10.0+6.5
2DET3.6--11.0-14.6
1MIN6.7-13.0+6.3
  • Averaging 5.3 pts vs 4.6 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 3.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.26)
  • Season high: 15.0 pts in Week 7

Marcus Mariota (QB) - WSH vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical upside). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). Now the starter (Jayden Daniels out). PHI has strong defense but Mariota has rushing floor. Cold weather, risky. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0--2.1-2.1
13BYE14.8-23.3+8.4
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11BYE18.2-15.4-2.8
10BYE16.3-18.7+2.4
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8BYE16.9-11.3-5.6
7BYE0.0-3.9+3.9
6BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4ATL0.0-16.2+16.2
3BYE17.0-20.3+3.2
2BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
1BYE0.2-0.0-0.2
  • Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
  • Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
  • Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.7 7.0 MODERATE 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 14.9 12.0 MODERATE 29% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 14.0 MODERATE 26% 55% 19% MEDIUM
Jordan Addison WR MIN 10.5 10.0 MODERATE 18% 49% 32% LOW
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 18.0 MODERATE 17% 61% 22% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 7.0 MODERATE 16% 28% 56% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.4 12.0 MODERATE 16% 57% 27% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 13.4 8.0 BUST 8% 34% 58% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.7 22.0 MODERATE 7% 24% 68% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 38%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 20%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 26% | Bust 19%)

Jordan Addison: MC (BUST: 56% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 7%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 32%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 22%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 56%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 53% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 59% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 17%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 54% | MODERATE: 19% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 68%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marcus Mariota (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Juwan Johnson (Elite ceiling (21 pts)), Bears D/ST (Elite ceiling (23 pts))
ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,
Boom%52%
Bust%17%
EV9.1
BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)
DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. WR
Boom%45%
Bust%19%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%50%
Bust%18%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%31%
Bust%23%
EV8.2
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%31%
Bust%29%
EV7.4
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (0-12) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%24%
EV10.2
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chargers D/ST D/ST 9.1 52% 17% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 50% 18% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.2 31% 23% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 31% 29% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.2 28% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 26% 28% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.5 24% 38% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 22% 28% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 22% 43% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 0.0 21% 30% 0.0%
Eddy Pineiro K 9.7 19% 42% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.2 16% 52% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 16% 47% 0.0%
Sam Darnold QB 15.7 15% 42% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.9 12% 52% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Sam Darnold 15.7 BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% 15% 42%
Kyler Murray 16.9 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 12% 52%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 12% 51%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 50% 18%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 22% 28%
Trey Benson 8.7 BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 56%
Emanuel Wilson 8.1 BUST:54%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:11% 11% 54%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.8 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 8% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Quentin Johnston 0.0 OUT:100% 21% 30%
Cooper Kupp 10.2 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:13% 16% 52%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% 16% 47%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 11% 58%
Keenan Allen 11.8 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 9% 55%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.2 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 31% 23%
Zach Ertz 10.2 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 28% 24%
Oronde Gadsden II 9.4 BUST:42%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:15% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 26% 28%
Eddy Pineiro 9.7 19% 42%
Evan McPherson 9.6 10% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chargers D/ST 9.1 52% 17%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 31% 29%
Commanders D/ST 7.5 24% 38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-16 05:53

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0
Expected Margin
128.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
110.0
Opponent (Proj)
33.2
Margin Std Dev
122.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -43.6 pts | Median: -0.5 pts | Ceiling: +41.7 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marcus Mariota QB MED 12.0 5.0-26.9 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 10% Marcus Mariota
Bucky Irving RB MED 17.0 5.0-24.2 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 14.0 3.6-24.5 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 21.0 6.3-30.3 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 13.0 6.0-27.7 ↑15+: 56% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.0 4.0-24.8 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 8.0 2.9-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Bears D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 0.5-16.1 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 39% Bears D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 5.2-17.2 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 18.0 6.5-27.5 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 20.0 4.1-27.7 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 6.0 2.5-18.9 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 5.0 0.7-18.3 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 14.0 5.4-25.4 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 7% Tetairoa McMillan
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 9.0 3.2-22.1 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Hunter Henry
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 18.0 6.2-27.7 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 22.0 10.1-40.3 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 12.0 5.0-28.5 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.0 5.0-22.7 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 10.0 5.5-21.3 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 7% Jordan Addison
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 8.0 3.2-31.0 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 28% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 14.0 8.2-26.2 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.4-17.5 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 33% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 7.0 2.7-14.9 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 28% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB MED 16.6 6.2-28.2 ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 7% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.8 2.8-20.3 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 24% Kareem Hunt
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 11.4 3.0-21.7 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 27% Rome Odunze
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.6 2.3-20.5 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 24% Romeo Doubs
Ryan Flournoy WR HIGH 10.1 2.0-22.2 ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 33% Ryan Flournoy
Mason Taylor TE LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 64% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.7 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.4 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.1
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 14.9 41% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.6 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Bears D/ST D/ST 19% @ 15.3 47% @ 8.1 34% @ 2.9 7.7
Marcus Mariota QB 42% @ 22.3 43% @ 14.6 15% @ 4.8 16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.311.0MODERATE56.8%29.2%14.0%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR14.20.0OUT44.8%36.1%19.2%
Jordan LoveQB17.418.0MODERATE26.6%51.7%21.7%
Rashee RiceWR17.813.0MODERATE25.2%41.6%33.2%
Bears D/STD/ST2.95.0BUST24.3%43.7%32.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.114.0MODERATE20.8%56.9%22.3%
Marcus MariotaQB0.012.0MODERATE17.4%31.7%50.9%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.18.0MODERATE15.0%24.6%60.4%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.76.0MODERATE14.1%43.3%42.6%
Devin SingletaryRB7.45.0BUST13.8%31.0%55.2%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.820.0BOOM13.1%47.9%39.0%
Rams D/STD/ST5.15.0BUST12.8%28.0%59.2%
Jameson WilliamsWR15.517.0MODERATE12.3%41.4%46.4%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.921.0MODERATE12.0%66.2%21.8%
Bucky IrvingRB15.217.0MODERATE11.1%38.3%50.6%
Omarion HamptonRB13.414.0MODERATE10.5%36.8%52.8%
Hunter HenryTE10.49.0MODERATE8.7%31.5%59.8%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 16 Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

  1. Patrick Mahomes (KC) - ACL tear, OUT for season. Gardner Minshew starting Week 16 vs TEN. ESPN
  2. Jayden Daniels (WSH) - Out rest of season. Marcus Mariota now the starter. Reddit
  3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) - On IR, OUT Week 16 vs ATL
  4. Davante Adams (NYJ) - Hamstring injury, week-to-week Reddit

Reddit Community Sentiment

  • Jacoby Brissett: Very POSITIVE - "matchup-proof 20-point QB" after 9 starts, 20.56 pts vs tough HOU defense. ATL allows top-6 fantasy QB in 2 of last 3 weeks.
  • Vikings Defense: ELITE - No TD pass allowed in 5 games. Hard avoid for WRs/QBs facing them (affects Singletary's support)
  • Rashee Rice: CONCERN - Mahomes out, Minshew takes over. Plus 80% rain/wind at Nashville.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

HIGH SCORING (boom environments): - PIT @ DET: 49.5 total, DET -6.5 (Jameson Williams in shootout) - LAC @ DAL: 49.5 total (Omarion Hampton dome game) - NE @ BAL: 48.5 total (Hunter Henry primetime) - GB @ CHI: 46.5 total (Jordan Love cold weather) - ATL @ ARI: 46.5 total, dome (Jacoby Brissett favorable)

LOW SCORING (bust environments): - KC @ TEN: 37.5 total + RAIN/WIND (Rashee Rice, Tyjae Spears depressed) - NYJ @ NO: 40.5 total (Juwan Johnson moderate ceiling)

Weather Concerns

  1. Nissan Stadium (KC @ TEN): 80% rain, 18mph wind - SIGNIFICANT passing game impact
  2. Soldier Field (GB @ CHI): 32°F, 15mph wind - moderate cold game
  3. MetLife (MIN @ NYG): 38°F, 12mph wind - cold but manageable

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (high confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1) - elite target share vs LAR - Bucky Irving (RB1) - juicy CAR matchup (2nd most pts to RBs) - Jacoby Brissett (QB1) - matchup-proof, ATL favorable - Jameson Williams (FLEX) - DET shootout script

SOLID STARTERS: - Rashee Rice (WR2) - volume play but Minshew + weather concerns - Omarion Hampton (RB2) - high-total dome game - Jordan Love (QB) - cold weather but 46.5 total

ACCEPTABLE: - Tetairoa McMillan (WR3/FLEX) - solid matchup vs TB - Hunter Henry (TE) - primetime, 48.5 total - Jason Myers (K) - consistent in favorable conditions

AVOID/SIT: - Devin Singletary - MIN elite defense - Marcus Mariota - tough PHI matchup - Bears D/ST - GB offense competent - Rams D/ST - SEA at home is tricky - Tyjae Spears - rain game + backup role

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Courtland Sutton, Tyrone Tracy

Negative Buzz: George Pickens, Rashee Rice (weather+QB)

Mixed Buzz: Gardner Minshew

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

No Debates Yet

Run /debate "Your question" to start a Crystal Society debate.

Examples:

  • "Should I start Player A over Player B?"
  • "Is this FA worth picking up?"
  • "What's the boom/bust outlook for Player X?"

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.5
Our Team MAE
17 players
12.2
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 11.7
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.7 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.5 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.4 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 0.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 14.9 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Opponent WR Jordan Addison 10.5 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.4 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.7 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.1 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.4 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 2.9 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7
Our Team MAE
18 players
8.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
21
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 10.0 24.0 +14.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 12.0 +12.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 26.4 +9.4
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 9.0 +9.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 4.5 -8.5
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.6 10.0 18.0 +8.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 8.1 -7.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 10.0 2.4 -7.6
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 13.0 20.6 +7.6
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 25.0 18.3 -6.7
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 8.0 14.4 +6.4
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.1 21.0 14.7 -6.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 -1.0 -6.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 4.8 +4.8
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 7.0 -4.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 16.0 12.1 -3.9
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 6.0 2.8 -3.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 7.5 -2.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 7.0 5.6 -1.4
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 14.0 13.9 -0.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
50%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
64%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.9 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 30.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.1 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 25.8 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
21% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
45% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 17.8 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 17.3 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 19.1 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 16.8 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 15.5 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.4 pts
90th percentile 25.2 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 5.1 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.4 pts
BUST
42%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 7.4 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.7 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Bears D/ST (D/ST)
Bears D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 2.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Marcus Mariota (QB)
Marcus Mariota distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 16.5 pts
90th percentile 27.1 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 18.8 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
72%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
72% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 23.7 pts
BUST
54%
MODERATE
19%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 10.2 pts
Median (50th) 16.2 pts
90th percentile 40.0 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 15.4 pts
BUST
53%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 8.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.1 pts
90th percentile 26.5 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
31%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 10.7 pts
90th percentile 22.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
36%
MODERATE
48%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Jordan Addison (WR)
Jordan Addison distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 10.5 pts
BUST
56%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
7%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 10.3 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
7% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
59%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 30.8 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
38%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 17.6 pts
MC (Historical)
38% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM